The 2026 Fantasy Football Season is almost upon us, and the excitement is palpable. As the preseason winds down and roster cuts are finalized, the stage is set for a thrilling season. The question on every fantasy football enthusiast's mind is: Who are the top sleepers, breakouts, busts, and riskiest picks? SportsLine's computer model, which accurately predicted Daniel Jones' breakout year in 2025, has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times to provide valuable insights. Here's a breakdown of the top players to target and avoid, along with a surprising tight end who could shock the NFL.
Top Sleepers
One sleeper who stands out is Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce. Last season, he was a big-play machine, finishing second in the league with an average of 21.3 yards per reception. His impressive performance earned him a four-year, $114 million contract extension. However, an ankle injury in camp and the addition of veteran Keenan Allen have caused his ADP to slip to around No. 87 overall. With Michael Pittman's departure, Pierce's outlook is promising, and SportsLine's model ranks him highly, surpassing receivers like Maik Nabers and Justin Jefferson.
Top Breakouts
Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart is another breakout candidate. The second-year pro from Ole Miss had a solid rookie season, throwing for 2,272 yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions, while adding 487 yards and nine scores on the ground. Despite some injury concerns, Dart's ADP is currently around No. 110, making him a potential steal. With an upgraded supporting cast and the return of Malk Nabers from ACL surgery, Dart has the potential to exceed expectations.
Top Busts
As for busts, Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III is a player to avoid. Walker's stock is high after his dominant playoff performance with Seattle. However, joining a Kansas City backfield without much competition and the team's pass-first offense could hinder his performance. Additionally, Walker's injury history, including missing at least one game in 2022, 2023, and 2024, makes him a risky pick. SportsLine's model ranks other backs like Jeremiyah Love, D'Andre Swift, and Bucky Irving higher, making Walker a potential disappointment.
Surprising Tight End
SportsLine's model also highlights a surprising tight end who could be a top-6 option in 2026 Fantasy Football drafts. This tight end is listed ahead of stars like Travis Kelce, Tyler Warren, and Kyle Pitts, and Sam LaPorta. The model's prediction adds an intriguing layer of depth to the position, leaving fantasy managers curious about this potential breakout star.
Conclusion
The 2026 Fantasy Football season promises to be an exciting journey, with plenty of opportunities for managers to make strategic moves. By targeting sleepers like Alec Pierce and breakout candidates like Jaxson Dart, while avoiding busts like Kenneth Walker III, fantasy managers can position themselves for success. Additionally, keeping an eye on the surprising tight end predicted by SportsLine's model could provide a significant edge in the draft. As the season unfolds, the model's insights will be invaluable, ensuring that fantasy managers are well-prepared for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
