Despite a decline in overseas migration and a low birth rate, Australia's population is projected to reach 28 million by 2026. The Centre for Population's 2025 Population Statement reveals a record-low population growth of 1.3% this year, down from 1.5% last year. This slowdown is attributed to a decrease in migrant arrivals and an increase in departures. Net overseas migration is expected to fall to 260,000 in 2026, a significant drop from the 2023 surge post-pandemic. The trend is driven by temporary visa holders approaching visa expiry dates. Immigration remains a politically charged issue, with the federal opposition scrutinizing the government's migrant intake. The Coalition, in its migration policy, proposes a tougher English language test for aspiring migrants. Australia's birth rate is projected to continue falling, reaching 1.45 children per woman in 2026, as couples delay parenthood and opt for smaller families. However, this rate is expected to recover to 1.62 by 2031-32, still below the replacement level of 2.1. While two-child families are common, the rate of couples choosing not to have children is rising, surpassing rates in the US and Denmark. Treasurer Jim Chalmers highlights the government's efforts to encourage childbearing through new policies. Despite economic progress, the government acknowledges ongoing challenges. Meanwhile, dementia has surpassed ischaemic heart disease as the leading cause of death in Australia. Australia's median age is projected to rise by 1.8 years to 40.2 by 2035-36. Western Australia is expected to lead in population growth due to net overseas migration and internal migration. Tasmania and South Australia are predicted to experience the slowest growth from 2026 to 2036. New South Wales will remain the most populous state, reaching 9.6 million by 2035-36, accounting for 30% of the national population. Sydney and Melbourne are projected to surpass 8 million in the 2050s, with Melbourne becoming the nation's most populous city by 2066, reaching 9.1 million.
